Dial down the Fear Factor Volume. It could be time to buy. Here’s why?
When (if) the $15,000 Home Buyer Tax Credit passes, the market will trampoline upward. Currently there 5.6 Months Supply of Inventory “For Sale” in The Woodlands. Real estate economists believe 6 to 7 months is represents a balanced market. If buyer activity catches fire, prices will go UP and a sellers market will re-bloom. Do you want to pay more in the summer or less now?
Mortgage rates are swooned to record lows. Today you can buy bigger, cooler, beautiful home for your hard earned money. When the market heats, home prices always rise along with mortgage rates. Do you want bigger monthly payments or smaller monthly payments.
Our real estate market is not depressed, battered and beaten like other real estate markets across the country and in the news. Local sellers generally aren’t desperate, prices have held steady. When spring burns into summer, fast activity will heard home prices and mortgage rates upward. Pay less for more now or pay more for less later?
Nobody called the beginning of the recession. We felt it before it was official. Nobody can accurately call the bottom, you’ll feel it simmer before it boils, bounces and becomes official too.
More food for thought:
Is Now the Time to Buy
Smart people say, that moment of knowing we have hit rock bottom is only indicated by the time when everyone is the most pessimistic. That moment is certainly getting closer.
1. We are in the midst of the best interest rates we have seen since we are told, the 1950′s! 4.5% – 5.5% is an amazing rate to lock in for 30 yrs! Jumbo loans at 7%!
2. Motivated sellers are watching the national news, they are willing to negotiate. Even though we are not in a depressed or declining market, the sellers watch national news stories that say otherwise. Buyers can take advantage of the negative mindset of the seller right now about his property not moving fast enough.
Facts:
National employment 3rd qtr 2008, down 500,000 vs. Houston employment at 60,000 new jobs.
Stable pricing is between 6-7 months of inventory according to A&M Research Center and Metro Study. Same period facts of 3rd qtr. 2008, 6.5 months of new home supply in the market according to MLS and MetroStudy.
State Resale Supply Statistics
| State/City | Months Supply |
| South Florida | 28 Months |
| Chicago | 15 Months |
| Atlanta and Phoenix | 13 Months |
| Charlotte and San Diego | 10 Months |
| Santa Fe, Albuquerque | 9 months |
| Colorado Springs and Raleigh Durham | 8 months |
| San Antonio | 7.5 months |
| Dallas Forth Worth and Houston | 6.5 months |
| Austin | 5.5 months |
| The Woodlands, Texas | 5.6 months |
Texas Markets 2008 through 3rd qtr. overall appreciation metrostudy
Austin: 5%
Houston: 4.4%
San Antonio: 4%
Forth Worth: 3.1%
Dallas: 2.1%
10 year average home appreciation for Houston: 5.31%. Houston does not have the huge appreciation but it is not a depreciating market.
Check out THIS Goldmans Sachs REPORT – positive appreciation expected.
Multi-Market Closings for New Homes by Annual Closings
| City | Annual Closings |
| Colorado Springs | less than 3,000 |
| Santa Fe | 4,000 |
| Tampa | 7,000 |
| Denver | 9,000 |
| *Salt Lake City | 11,000 |
| *(#1 Recession proof city in the US according to Forbes Mag. 2008) | |
| Austin | 11,000 |
| San Francisco | 12,000 |
| Raleigh/Durham | 13,000 |
| San Antonio | 13,000 |
| Las Vegas | 14,000 |
| Chicago | 15,000 |
| Charlotte | 16,000 |
| Orlando | 24,000 |
| Atlanta | 25,000 |
| Phoenix | 29,000 |
| DFW | 29,000 |
| **Houston | 35,000 |
| **Most Flourishing Market in the Nation and State with Annual New Home Closings | |
Texas has had and continues to have an overall escalating market.
From 1st qtr. 2000 – Homes in Houston, San Antonio, Austin and DFW were basically selling at $200,000.
Today DFW is around $270,000; Houston is close to $300,000; While San Antonio and Austin sell at close to $310,000. Slow and Steady…
Why Buy?
- Affordability - Texas and specifically Houston is among the most affordable in the US
- More choices in Houston than most other cities – single family, condo, high rises, lofts
- The Meltdown is in Other Markets – not Texas ”We have a Stable Local Market”
- Good time to trade up – you may sacrifice on selling end but capitalize on the buying end
- Interest Rates are affordable “right now”…we don’t know about summer or fall 09
- Homeowners are very realistic right now about home pricing – we could say homes are “on Sale” right now!
- Home prices in Houston and Texas are stable.
- Houston’s economy is strong
While others in cities that have enjoyed great appreciating markets are concerned they will not be able to build equity as rapidly as they did in real estate years past, in Texas, we have never seen the high appreciating markets, we only have seen in the past 10 years, slow and steady…If you plan to stick around in your home, you will see an appreciation of your property. NAR statistics show the average first time home buyer plans to stay in their home for 10 yrs. now as compared to last year’s survey of 7 yrs. Maybe people have become more realistic about how long it takes to earn equity or maybe they have more confidence in real estate assets they can see and feel than other market assets.
As much as we discuss appreciation, truth be known: People buy for Life style…not investment.
You couldn’t be in a better State or better City for selling real estate. The facts are crystal clear:
- You will have the best year ever if you believe in psychology of real estate.
- If you tell yourself it is a bad time – it will be.
- If you tell yourself it is a great time – it will be.
- But the facts say, “it has been and will be a great time for real estate”.
The Most Flourishing Market in the Nation and State with Annual New Home Closings is Houston.
Facts from MetroStudy 11/08
Investing in real estate assets right now is the best placement of your money; it is a better hedge than gold.
Dr. Dotzour, TX A&M Research Center 1/12/09
You couldn’t be in a better State or better City for selling real estate than Houston Texas.
TX A&M Research Center Data 1/12/09
More than 2 million jobs were lost between Nov 2007 – Nov 2008 in the Nation; representing 1.2 % of its labor force. The Texas economy gained 222,900jobs during the same time period; an increase in labor force of 2.1%.
Real Estate Center RECON 1/13/09
Houston has the strongest job market in the US.
Metrostud, Jan. 12, 2009
Texas has the strongest job market by State in the US exceeding the nearest competition by 1000%.
MetroStudy, Jan. 2009.
Houston’s inventory of homes is 5-6 months on average. This is the lowest average days on market in the US.
TX A&M Research Center Data 1/13/09
“We are half way through our recession in Texas. It started out last Jan. 2008.”
Dr. Dotzour, TX A&M Research Center 1/13/09
“The Texas Land Sales Market is short of Phenomenal.”
Dr. Gilliland, A&M Research Center Jan. 12, 2009
Texas is the #2 Destination State for Retirees.
Dr. Gaines, TX A&M Research Center Data 1/12/09
Houston has the most affordable median home price of any MSA.
TX A&M Research Center Data 1/12/09.
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If I can answer questions or help, let me know – Ken Brand 832-797-1779
“Better keep yourself clean and bright; you are the window through which you must see the world.” - George Bernard Shaw
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