Post- Harvey Home Sales Report for The Woodlands – September 2017

Click HERE To view/download/print/share the full September market report info.

Click HERE to view/download/print/share the Post Harvey Talking Points .PDF.


Post-Harvey Talking Points:

Past market information is useful, but let’s talk about what-now.

Having experienced the market dynamics of previous floods, Ike, Katrina, etc. and candid conversations with our Go To, All Pro, Supremely Experienced appraiser friend, Tom Crawford – Tom Crawford Appraisers, I’ll share this take.

First best wishes for a swift recovery to those effected directly and indirectly by Howard.

In no particular order.


Generally speaking, The Woodlands area had fewer flood homes than other areas of Houston.  This will be a positive force for un-flooded home sellers in our area.

Home buyers gravitate and migrate to areas where the best inventory of un-flooded homes are located. The Woodlands Area is such an area.  Note: Because the selection of homes in The Woodlands has been at an all time high, we may not see prices rise as much as we will see a positive upward swing in sales momentum.

We do anticipate a drop in Days On Market and a higher List Price To Sales Price %.  Less time on market with negotiated prices closer to list price. 

We do not anticipate a rise in prices in price ranges that more that five or six Months Supply Of Inventory.  See Months Supply Of Inventory By Price Range below. 

Caution: Before considering a price increase you will want to consider these factors to keep from shooting yourself in the foot.

  1.  Buyer’s comparison shop.  This means that if you raise your price and your competitors (the other properties a buyer would consider, new and resale) have not, you will moving yourself out of salable position.  Which means your may sit unsold while your competitors enjoy sales success before you do. Before considering a price increase have your agent do an up to the minute neighborhood market analysis to see where you are positioned relative to your competitors.  Sales success in any market is about how your are positioned against your competition (Positioning is a combination of Location, Exterior Condition, Interior Condition, Marketing & Promotions and Pricing).
  2. Properties must appraise.  Appraisers analyze comparable (size, location, amenities, condition) past sales and do not adjust upwards or downwards based on weather related events.
  3. Consider the months Supply Of Inventory in your price range.  For example, using the Months Supply Of Inventory chart below.  If you’re property is priced between $800K and 900K, there is a one year Supply Of Inventory.  Six months is considered balanced.  One year is considered an extreme buyers market.  Homes in this price range may sell faster than before and closer to original listing price, but we do not expect that buyer demand in this price range, and other over five or six month of inventory would draw down inventory enough to warrant a price increase.  Supply and demand factors are still relevant.
  4. Looking at the Listings Placed Under Contract graph below, we note that sales activity traditionally softens each month through January.  There is no reason to expect seasonality to vary much this year. This means that the last quarter of this year will be better than last year.  But not as active as the summer months.

We will monitor the daily sales activity and report to you in two or three weeks.


HAR MLS has added a new searchable field for agents, Home/Property Flooded by Harvey: Yes or No.  (see picture below)

If you’re a seller, have your listing agent edit your listing info immediately.

Agents and buyers will be using these search fields in every property search.  If this data field is left blank it will not show up in a search for un-flooded properties, even if it was not flooded.

Have your listing agent get on this pronto!  Also, if a property has had rising water on to the property or in the property and it is not noted on the previously completed Disclosure,  the Seller’s Disclosure Notice  should be updated immediately.  As of September 12, 350 of the 849 active listings have not been updated.  Gary Greene Pros have updated all of our listing inventory.

If a property had flood waters into the property, what then?


Speaking with Tom Crawford (Crawford Appraisers) about the impact on appraisal values for flooded properties, Tom shares that in past studies, flooded properties lose around 22% of their pre-flood value.

The impact of flood water On To the property, but not INTO the property is minimal.

With the new search field, Flood Y/N,  properties that have had flood water INTO the property, after repair, an immediate price adjustment is recommended.  Check with your accountant, you may be able to write off a portion of the lost value as a Casualty Loss on your Tax Return.

New home construction prices will most definitely rise due to the rising cost of sheet rock and the sheet rock labor costs.  We’re hearing reports that sheet rock contractors are telling their builders they will honor their current labor contracts, but when the contract is up, they will work for the highest bidder.

Rising new home prices will blunt new home competition with resale properties.  This is a positive factor for the resale market.


In Conclusion:

I believe our market will experience a positive impact for un-flooded property sellers.

Buyers will gravitate and migrate towards areas and properties that did not flood. The Woodlands Area is one of these areas.

Flooded homes will be taken off the market for repair, creating less inventory and less competition for sellers.

New home prices will rise and resale properties will attract more attention.

Flooded properties will lose up to 20% in value in the near term:-(

We do anticipate a drop in Days On Market and a higher List Price To Sales Price %, which is currently 95%.

We do not anticipate a rise in prices in price ranges that have more that five or six Months Supply Of Inventory. (See Chart Below To Check Months Supply Of Inventory By Price Range.)

Caution: Before considering a price increase you will want to consider these factors to keep from shooting yourself in the foot.

1.  Buyer’s comparison shop.  This means that if you raise your price and your competitors (the other properties a buyer would consider, new and resale.) have not, you will moving yourself out of salable position.  Which means your may sit unsold while your competitors enjoy sales success before you do. Before considering a price increase have your agent do an up to the minute neighborhood market analysis to see where you are positioned relative to your competitors.  Sales success in any market is about how your are positioned against your competition (Positioning is a combination of Location, Exterior Condition, Interior Condition, Marketing & Promotions and Pricing).

2.   Properties must appraise.  Appraisers analyze comparable (size, location, amenities, condition) past sales and do not adjust upwards or downwards based on weather related events.

3.   Consider the months Supply Of Inventory in your price range.  For example, using the Months Supply Of Inventory chart below.  If you’re property is priced between $800K and 900K, there is a one year Supply Of Inventory.  Six months is considered a  balanced market between sellers and buyers.  One year inventory is considered an extreme buyers market.  In this new market, homes in this price range may sell faster than before and closer to original listing price, but we do not expect that buyer demand in this price range, and other ranges with over five or six month of inventory, would draw down inventory enough to warrant a price increase.  Supply and demand factors are still relevant.

4. Looking at the Listings Placed Under Contract graph below, we note that sales activity traditionally softens each month through January.  There is no reason to expect seasonality to vary much this year. This means that the last quarter of this year will be better than last year, but not as active as the summer months.

We will monitor the daily sales activity and report to you in two or three weeks.


If we can be helpful, please call on us. And now, pre Harvey homes sales report info.


Listing Inventory Month-By-Month.

 


Listing Inventory By Price Range.

On September 5th.


Listings Placed Under Contract (Sales).

 

 


Months Supply Of Inventory By Price Range.

 


In Conclusion:

I believe our market will experience a positive impact for un-flooded property sellers.

Buyers will gravitate and migrate towards areas and properties that did not flood. The Woodlands Area is one of these areas.

Flooded homes will be taken off the market for repair, creating less inventory and less competition for sellers.

New home prices will rise and resale properties will attract more attention.

Flooded properties will lose up to 20% in value in the near term:-(

We do anticipate a drop in Days On Market and a higher List Price To Sales Price %, which is currently 95%.

We do not anticipate a rise in prices in price ranges that have more that five or six Months Supply Of Inventory. (See Chart Below To Check Months Supply Of Inventory By Price Range.)

Caution: Before considering a price increase you will want to consider these factors to keep from shooting yourself in the foot.

  1.  Buyer’s comparison shop.  This means that if you raise your price and your competitors (the other properties a buyer would consider, new and resale) have not, you will moving yourself out of salable position.  Which means your may sit unsold while your competitors enjoy sales success before you do. Before considering a price increase have your agent do an up to the minute neighborhood market analysis to see where you are positioned relative to your competitors.  Sales success in any market is about how your are positioned against your competition (Positioning is a combination of Location, Exterior Condition, Interior Condition, Marketing & Promotions and Pricing).
  2. Consider the months Supply Of Inventory in your price range.  For example, using the Months Supply Of Inventory chart below.  If you’re property is priced between $800K and 900K, there is a one year Supply Of Inventory.  Six months is considered balanced.  One year is considered an extreme buyers market.  Homes in this price range may sell faster than before and closer to original listing price, but we do not expect that buyer demand in this price range, and other over five or six month of inventory would draw down inventory enough to warrant a price increase.  Supply and demand factors are still relevant.
  3. Looking at the Listings Placed Under Contract graph below, we note that sales activity traditionally softens each month through January.  There is no reason to expect seasonality to vary much this year. This means that the last quarter of this year will be better than last year.  But not as active as the summer months.

 


If we can be helpful, please call on us. And now, pre Harvey homes sales report info.



 Click HERE To view/download/print/share the full market report info.

If I can be helpful:-)

Ken Brand | 832-797-1779 | Ken@KenBrand.com